How to Approach Preseason Hype

The preseason for any sport is a magical time in the card world.

Claims are thrown around about all the rookies and rising stars.

This guy is making the leap.
That guy is gonna throw for 5000 yards.
This QB is ready to take his team to the Super Bowl.
This guy is going to win his first MVP.

All of it is great for the card market.

Excitement swirls and card values steadily climb through the preseason.

But during the preseason, there’s no accountability for any of these statements.

Anyone can make a claim about any player, and since the games haven’t started yet, none of it has to be backed up with anything tangible at all.

Before the season, you can cherry pick stats to make an argument for most players to be primed for a big year.

Once the season is underway, it’s much more difficult to do this because actual performance will speak louder than any remaining hype.

And because values were inflated by the preseason hype, this puts many cards in position to fall quickly if the player doesn’t immediately perform.

There are two approaches to consider:

Conservative: Sell during the preseason hype. Generally this approach will yield lower profit margins, but you don’t have to assume the risk of holding the card into the season so it’s a much safer play. It’s also possible to turn a huge profit here depending on your entry point.

Risky: Hold the card into the season and hope the player’s performance matches or exceeds the hype. It’s far riskier because you’re betting on the player rather than playing the swings in the market, but if you’re right, generally the potential upside is greater.