2023 First Half: Sports Card Winners, Losers, and Opportunities
The sports card market was in an uncertain place entering 2023 after dipping for much of 2022 after the pandemic boom. To the delight of investors, the first half of ’23 has given us a lot more stability than we saw last year. It feels as though the market is in a far healthier place right now than it was from 2020-22, when both the rises and the pullbacks seemed temporary.
How have the events of 2023’s first half impacted sports card values? Who has won? Who has lost? What are some of the opportunities we see moving forward?
Let’s dive in.
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Winners
Nikola Jokic
This guy is an animal on the court, and a great personality off of it. His cards climbed through the playoffs and have held at new highs after the Finals victory. It’s hard not to like a guy who cares more about winning than he does about his own stats. It’s also hard not to like a guy who does stuff like this:
Still only 28, Jokic already has multiple MVPs and a ring. He’s a HOFer even if he retired today. What makes him special is his unique skillset for his size. He averaged just under 10 assists per game as a center, falling just short of averaging a triple-double for the season. People tend to gravitate toward players who can do things they’ve never seen before, and Jokic is doing exactly that. As he continues to pile up stats and awards, his rare RCs should continue to steadily rise as well.
Shohei Ohtani
Holy cow this guy is a unicorn. My initial read on him a few years ago was straight up wrong and I need to own that. I thought he was an above average to good hitter and an average to above average pitcher. It was cool that he was doing both, but I didn’t see him as a true superstar other than the novelty of him both hitting and pitching. The past couple years, he has taken it to a different level and is clearly one of the best players in the game. If you want to say pitching and hitting at this level makes him #1, I won’t argue.
Everything he’s done from the WBC gold medal to his dominant first half has pushed his cards higher and higher. He has so many RCs from 2018 sets with massive print runs, so the base RCs should always remain obtainable for the everyman. His rare RCs, however, should continue to rise with time as more settle into investment portfolios and permanent collections.
Trevor Lawrence
The Jaguars won their last 5 games of the 2022 season to leapfrog the injury-riddled Titans and claim the division title. They even won a playoff game before losing in the divisional round to the eventual champion Chiefs. Know who benefits when an NFL team wins? Their QB and anyone who owns cards of him. Lawrence cards are up massively from 12 months ago. The narrative is that Lawrence and Jacksonville are trending up, and his cards have followed. Lawrence hype should continue to swirl until the season begins, and at that point, values will shift to where they’re mostly dependent on performance. If he picks up where he left off last year, look out. If he gets off to a slow start, be careful – his values could level off and drop quickly.
Ronald Acuña Jr
If they both stay healthy, we probably already know who will be the AL & NL MVPs. I’m usually hesitant to say with so much time left in the season, but like Ohtani, Acuña has been incredible this year. He’s pacing for 38 homers and 75 stolen bases. MLB has never seen a 30/70 season, much less a 40/70. Usually stolen bases are not a big driver of card values. The exception is when they’re part of a power/speed combo like Acuña is showing this year.
Since both of their RC Logo cards were from 2018 products, it’s been discussed whether Acuña or Juan Soto was the better buy. Soto cards have continued to fall despite an all star season, while Acuña’s key RCs have jumped again. 40/70 is a somewhat arbitrary milestone, so I wouldn’t expect quite as much attention on it as Aaron Judge got last year when he was chasing 62 home runs; but Acuña will get plenty of attention down the stretch because the Braves are one of the World Series favorites, which gives his cards a logical reason to continue to rise in the second half – even as other baseball values start to taper off for the year.
Elly de la Cruz
He was a top prospect, so maybe we shouldn’t be surprised… but wow. This guy personifies the word “electric” with everything he does. The bat plays, but it’s the speed that has been game-changing. For example, here’s Elly swiping 2nd, 3rd, and Home, in a matter of about 90 seconds.
Normally the longer you hold prospects after they debut, the riskier it becomes. Hype dissipates and they have to perform at a high level for card values to hold or rise. So far Elly has answered the call. Does he have what it takes to do it long-term?
People Going to the National
The National Sports Collector Convention will be July 26th-30th in Rosemont, IL. This is the most fun event in the sports card world. If you’ve never been, I highly encourage you to go to the National. You can find things you didn’t know existed. Trades happen face-to-face with actual human beings instead of doing everything over the internet. You can walk in with a bag full of cards to sell and walk out with cash.
Go to the National. If you’re into cards, you won’t regret it. This year is set to be the biggest event ever. We’ll be there walking around trying to sling some deals and enjoying cardboard paradise. If you’d like, hit us up on Instagram if you’re going and we can try to meet up and talk shop!
Public Service Announcement: It’s “The National” and definitely not “Nationals.” It’s a sports card show, not your middle school daughter’s weekend cheerleading competition.
Losers
Ja Morant
Ja is an easy pick for #1 on the loser list. One thing I’ll never understand is athletes who make moronic decisions off the court that jeopardize their careers. You literally have infinite resources – hire someone to follow you around and make sure you don’t do anything stupid!
Instead, Ja is out here live streaming himself waving guns around acting like a gangster to his almost 10 million followers. He gets in trouble for it, has to apologize, and everyone moves on. Then a few weeks later, he does the exact same thing AGAIN. Excuse me, but WTF is this guy thinking?
He’s suspended for half of next year and is probably lucky that he wasn’t given a longer suspension. Worst of all for card purposes, now he’ll have to overcome lingering questions about his character. He’s incredibly talented, but it’s tough to get excited about putting money into a guy’s cards when he has the emotional maturity of a middle schooler. He’s down a little bit across the board if you like him as a buy low candidate, however.
Patrick Mahomes
This one might feel surprising because he’s a monster on the field. He’s also certainly not a loser. But despite his dominant MVP + Super Bowl Championship + Super Bowl MVP season, his cards actually have fallen significantly. This is likely less about him and more about the overall market still recovering from the pandemic boom. Mahomes had been one of the players whose cards benefitted most during the 2020-21 rise.
Moving forward, his cards should have a much more realistic starting point than where they were a year ago. His talent is off the charts and the Chiefs seem primed for another playoff run this year. As we move further away from 2017 and the release of his rookie year products, the rarer cards will become harder to find. This will put upward pressure on their values so long as he continues to perform at a high level.
Juan Soto
I have to admit I was wrong on this one and will likely take an L on the couple Soto cards I held. I thought the change to the shift rule this season would mean he’d hit .340 and have a shot at another batting title. It simply hasn’t happened. He walks a lot, so his OPS will always be among league leaders. Walks are boring though, so nobody cares. For cards to rise, we want players who rake. Soto has shown it in the past, but the past couple seasons, the bat hasn’t been quite as good despite the elite approach.
It’s hard to argue his talent, however. He’s also somehow still only 24 even though it feels like he’s been around forever at this point. I think he was a guy who – like Mahomes – was over-inflated and has now come back to normal values. As an entry point, today’s values are probably a much safer play than where they were 6-12 months ago.
People Who Keep Buying Graded Base Cards
Sorry if this is you, but here’s your friendly nudge that it’s ok to reevaluate your card strategy regularly. If you’re still buying graded base cards expecting a pay day, please consider making an adjustment. This is probably the single card type that got whacked the hardest as the overall market has cooled the past two years, and it’s difficult to see a world where this changes anytime soon.
If you’re buying raw base to grade and flip and the financials make sense, do it. But if you’re buying a graded base card as a short term investment, you better have a good reason. The vast majority of them are still stagnant or falling. Why? Because the market has decided non-rare cards shouldn’t be overvalued anymore. While I’m on this topic, consider what you’re missing out on if you’re holding onto a bunch of falling assets. We break it down in Opportunity Cost and Sports Cards.
Opportunities
Here’s some food for thought on a few potential buying opportunities right now.
Basketball Cards
It’s buying season for hoops. Everyone is focused on baseball season and getting excited for the upcoming football season. Know what that means? Few are focused on basketball cards right now.
It’s a great time to pick up some key RCs while the market is in its annual short-term lull. General rule of thumb is to consider players you think are undervalued or will be in the spotlight when the 2023-24 gets going later this year.
Mike Trout and Baseball Underachievers
It’s been years since I’ve felt like Mike Trout was a good short term buy, yet here we are. He’s having a “down” year – at least by his impossible standards. Somehow he’s still top 15 in WAR, but his numbers are down a bit and he’s not generating the buzz he usually does. He’s getting older, but there are many examples of star baseball players still being great into their mid-late 30s. Maybe we won’t see him post another 10 WAR season, but I find it hard to believe he’s hit his decline.
If you agree that he still has more in the tank, now could be a solid time to look at his RCs as a candidate to buy now and sell next spring. A lot of his key cards have dropped in value and are more touchable than they’ve been in awhile.
Trout is one good example this year, but also consider who else might be having a down year. You might be able to scoop up their cards cheap now and flip them before 2024’s season begins.
NFL QBs Getting Overlooked
There’s been an enormous emphasis on young QBs this NFL offseason. Any of these guys could develop into stars, but I often wonder if the collective card market overvalues youth and undervalues actual ability. Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell are young and should have opportunity, but they aren’t cheap. Are they better buys than say Josh Allen, who looked unstoppable at the beginning of last season?
Closing: A Shameless Plug
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