MLB 2023 Preview: Rule Changes and Names to Watch
As the card market continues to get back to how it used to operate before the boom during the pandemic, the 2023 baseball season should be a slice of normalcy, where it’s far easier to predict whose cards have a good chance to rise in value – and more importantly, why. A big influencer on values in ’23 will be the shift ban and the other rule changes taking effect this year.
Let’s talk about the rule changes, spring training, the WBC, and some of the types of players whose values may be well-positioned to climb in 2023.
Rule Changes
Let’s start with the changes baseball is making to its rules. Here’s the full list from MLB.
In short, there’s a pitch clock, a limit on pick-off attempts, bigger bases, and restrictions on defensive shifts. All of this should boost offense in ’23.
Larger Bases & Pitch Clock
For starters, the distance from home plate to first base is 3 inches shorter, meaning more infield hits and more baserunners. When runners are on base, it’s also going to be easier to steal second. The base path between first and second base is 4.5 inches shorter, there’s a limit to the number of pickoff attempts, and there’s a pitch clock, all of which will help runners anticipate when they’ll be taking off to try to steal a base.
The adjustments likely mean higher batting averages and more runners in scoring position. That should set up the middle-of-the-lineup hitters to post bigger RBI numbers than we’re used to seeing. RBI alone isn’t the best stat for determining a hitter’s ability, but it’s one of the primary stat categories that is regularly discussed in the baseball world.
How excited would you be about Mike Trout if he posted a season of .290/40/90 compared to a season of .300/40/110? The second line has a far superior feel to it, don’t you think? That kind of production will impact card values this year.
Shift Restrictions
Defensive shifts have become a massive part of baseball over the past few seasons. If the hitter were to poke the ball right through the hole a few at bats in a row, they’d force the other team to stop shifting. They aren’t going to give you a free 1.000 batting average. Instead, we’ve seen players stubbornly continuing to hit right into shifts and complaining about the shift being unfair like giant crybabies (lol).
It’s never made much sense to me – why not sacrifice 2-3 at bats where you beat the shift with an 80 mph roller through the hole they’ve given you, add a few points to your average, and then go back to trying to hit everything 600 feet after you’ve forced the defense to go back to normal alignment.
With the rise in analytics, however, players are prioritizing home runs over everything, which means sacrificing their batting averages and strikeout rates to try to hit the ball out of the park. Per baseballsavant.com, in 2022, defenses shifted on over a third of all plate appearances (33.6%). Against left handed hitters, that rate jumped to over half of plate appearances at 55%.
The new rules force defenses to have two infielders on either side of second base with their feet in the infield dirt.
Players Impacted
This is going to be huge for some of the players who’ve been shifted on the most over the past few seasons.
Here’s the list of players who have seen the most shifts.
Right away, some of the top players in MLB stand out. Jose Ramirez, Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani, and Yordan Alvarez are all among the top 30 players who have faced the most shifts. It’s probably safe to assume each player will have more success in ’23 without the shift. If you’re looking for names to explore investing in, these five players could be a good place to start.
Other names that stand out near the top of the list include Cody Bellinger, Kyle Schwarber, and Joey Gallo. All have had strong offensive seasons in the past, but in recent years have seen their averages tank. This is mostly due to shifts, so the new rules could help these guys put up more respectable slash lines.
Schwarber led the NL in home runs in 2022, but he only batter .218. This isn’t usually strong enough to support high card values despite the power output. If he can raise his average toward .250, he will be seen as a more rounded hitter. This is attractive to investors and collectors and can help boost card values.
Applying Rule Changes to Buying Strategy
My main interests this off-season have been players whose production has been hampered by the shift, middle-of-the-lineup hitters with good table setters batting ahead of them, and players whose speed is a big part of their game.
We can look at virtually any player with a no-shift wOBA that is notably higher than a shift wOBA and assume the rule changes will help their production in ’23, although the players impacted most will be the ones who see the most shifts.
There’s also a lot of reason to be excited about hitters who bat 3rd, 4th, or 5th in good lineups. These guys will likely see a boost in both average and counting stats like runs and RBI. Their overall season lines will look better than the past couple years without any notable growth or skill improvement.
Lastly, players who steal bases will likely be able to steal more bases. Remember, speed alone without a strong bat or home run production doesn’t sell cards. But guys like Ronald Acuna Jr or Kyle Tucker who are already 30/30 threats might suddenly be 40/40 threats.
Spring Domination
The other thing we love to see leading into the season are players who appear to be in midseason form. There’s not much worse for values than when a player stumbles out of the gates. The beginning of the season is the time of year when values are most volatile, so naturally we want to see a hot start. Spring stats are meaningless, but a strong spring often indicates the player will have a strong first month of the regular season.
10 Names To Watch in 2023
Below are some of the players whose cards we’ll be watching. We’ll also offer our reasoning for why each player could be positioned to rise this year.
For this list, we focus on non-prospects. These are all players we expect to benefit in some way from the rule changes without changing anything they’re already doing. Prospects still need to prove their ability, so the rule changes won’t impact their values in the same way.
Note: The links below show each player’s Bowman Chrome and Topps Chrome Rookie Card Autos on eBay.
Spring Leaders
Corey Seager – He was among MLB leaders in hits and batted .400 for the spring with 4 homers. It seems the shift ban is already helping, and he looks ready to build on his impressive ’22 all-star season as he enters his second year as a Ranger in ’23.
Matt Olson – Olson led MLB with 8 spring training homers. He’ll be a big part of the Braves’ top tier offense this season, and looks to already be ready to go. Olson also saw shifts in over 80% of his plate appearances last season, so his slash line will likely improve in ’23 too.
Elite Third Basemen
Nolan Arenado – Trea Turner got the World Baseball Classic headlines for hitting 5 homers, but Arenado tied to lead all WBC players with 10 hits. He also hit .524 in Spring Training. The Cardinals’ offense is shaping up to be better than they get credit for, and Nolan will be right in the middle of it. On top of historically-prolific defense, it looks like we may be in for a repeat of Arenado’s blazing offensive start to the 2022 season that ultimately earned him a top-3 MVP finish.
Manny Machado – He’s been solid at the plate this spring, as expected. But the main draw with Machado is the help the Padres got him during the offseason. At times during 2022, it felt like Manny was the only good player in the lineup for San Diego. The ’23 Padres will have Xander Boegarts, a full season of Soto, and the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. That’s an elite top 4, and Manny is primed to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Shift Ban Beneficiaries
Kyle Tucker – King Tuck’s weighted on-base average with a shift in 2022 was .336. His weighted on-base average without a shift in 2022 was .463. He saw a shift in a whopping 90.9% of his plate appearances. We could see some massive jumps in Tucker’s average and OPS in ’23. He also stole 25 bags in ’22 and stands to benefit from the bigger bases and pitch clock in ’23.
Yordan Alvarez – One of the most prolific power hitters in baseball was also one of the players who saw the most shifts. The Astros’ lineup is going to be strong despite Altuve missing time, and Alvarez will be there to pile up the RBI all year. Yordan also feels relatively inexpensive compared to his production, and another season of elite stats should force his values higher. Simply put, this dude absolutely smushes baseballs and may be an MVP candidate in 2023.
Juan Soto – After a torrid 8 for 14 start this spring, Soto was sidelined with an injury. He’s back in action to start the season, and we expect him to get back on track after a down 2022 by his standards. Soto saw shifts in almost 60% of 2022 plate appearances, so one of baseball’s best all-around hitters may get even better. He also has other great hitters around him, which will help add to his production.
Speed Demons
Ronald Acuna Jr. – It’s hard not to be a big fan of Acuna to begin with, and now he gets the added boost of shorter base paths to add to his base-stealing prowess. He may have the best shot at 40/40 of anyone in baseball. Most importantly, he’s entering the season fully healthy after missing the first part of the ’22 season with injury.
Julio Rodriguez – Julio showed an impressive power + speed combo in his rookie season, and we expect a nice encore in ’23. The rule changes should help push his SB total above 30. Can he skip the dreaded sophomore slump and build on his strong rookie year showing?
Trea Turner – He had a killer WBC, but even before that, Turner seemed primed for a big 2023. Thanks to the rule changes, we like his chances to boost his SB total back into the 30-40 range this year. The power he showed in the WBC was promising as well, as he broke the record for most home runs in a WBC career. Even more impressively, he did it in a single WBC tournament. Turner’s 162 game average is 24 home runs and his career high is 28 (2021). Even if he doesn’t go for 30/30, we could see him posting something in the range of .300 Avg, 25 HR, 35 SB.
Bonus – The Star Returning from Injury
Bryce Harper – Harper has long been one of the stubborn hitters who mashes the ball directly into the shift. He still puts up great numbers, but 2023 will offer bigger holes on the right side of the field for the lefty to pull the ball through. He’s still working his way back from Tommy John Surgery, so we won’t see him in game action for a couple months. But once he gets on the field – look out. Harper is going to do damage as the centerpiece of a strong lineup in Philadelphia.
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