Monthly Impact: Sports Card Values – August 2022

August was a big month in sports, providing opportunities and inflection points for those of us involved with cards. Let’s dive right into three of the biggest stories and their impact on card values.

Disclosure: We value transparency and figure you do too, so please note that some of the links on this page are affiliate links. This means at no additional charge to you, Cardboard Profit may earn a commission if you click through a link and make a purchase. This helps make the content of Cardboard Profit free of charge to you.

#1

What Happened: Fernando Tatis Jr. Cheated

Fernando Tatis Jr. was suspended 80 games for testing positive for a banned substance. He will miss the remainder of this season and the first part of 2023. Tatis, who turns 24 in August, was coming off injury and about to make his 2022 season debut.

Analysis

Total bummer for Major League Baseball. Tatis had previously been one of the league’s budding young stars, and now his name will be forever tainted.

Worse yet, instead of owning it, taking responsibility, and apologizing for his mistake, he acted like a total loser in the way he handled the news. He blamed the positive test on an over the counter ringworm medication and did the usual “I had no idea” bit.

Why does this sound familiar? Because every time anyone is ever caught cheating, they lie, make excuses, say the test was wrong, and act like a 7-year-old throwing a gigantic temper-tantrum in every other way possible. It’s not new.

It’s also embarrassing. People aren’t stupid, and the test isn’t wrong. You cheated, Fernando. You made the choice to play with fire and you got burned. The only acceptable way to handle this is to own it, apologize like a man, and hope people can forgive and move on.

Impact on Card Values

Unfortunately, this is one of the worst imaginable outcomes for Tatis card values. After a long wait, he was finally about to get back onto the field and his cards had a chance to be relevant again. Instead, not only won’t he be back on the field, but now his reputation is tarnished. Nobody wants to collect cards of a cheater, and values responded quickly, as you can see from recent sold listings on eBay Research.

Check out his card index, courtesy of Card Ladder:

Can you tell at which point the cheating news went live? Lol. The market responds to news like this immediately, and not in a good way. His cards now face an upward battle to regain relevancy.

Ken Goldin of Goldin Auctions tried to quantify the impact of this incident, saying it will cost collectors $100 million of value when you consider the entire Tatis market and how much value disappeared overnight. Not a good day for anyone with his cards. Be better, Fernando.

For guidance on what to do in scenarios like this, take a look at our overview of Opportunity Cost & Sports Cards.

#2

What Happened: Mickey Mantle RC Sells for $12.6 Million

On a more positive note, a baseball card sold for $12.6 Million. It was one of the highest graded copies in existence – an SGC 9.5 – of the coveted Mickey Mantle 1952 Topps. It breaks the record for the most expensive sports card sale of all time.

Analysis

Many high end cards have steadily climbed in value over the past few decades. The card market exploded in 2020, catapulting virtually all card values to new heights, but especially the highest end cards. 2021 Saw a pullback for much of the market, and while the high end of the market wasn’t fully immune to the pullback, the highs of 2020 and early ’21 showed people what was possible in the high end card market. Cards were being viewed as a legitimate investment by folks who had never considered buying cards before. This Mantle sale serves as another piece of evidence that sports cards can be a game-changing investment.

Impact on Card Values

This is fantastic news for card values across the entire card market. It’s yet another meaningful example of cards holding and gaining value over time. The fear with commodities like cards that carry intrinsic value is that the intrinsic value will outweigh the extrinsic value and the card may not ever be worth the real money it perhaps should be. That fear has been proven over and over again to carry no weight, and this Mantle sale is merely the latest example.

Additionally, the rising tide lifts all boats. If you own a ’52 Mantle, it’s probably worth more now than it was before the $12.6 million sale. If you don’t own a ’52 Mantle, you still stand to benefit from this sale. It strengthens the overall market when money is pumped in, and it also shows people there is major investment opportunity in our space.

The sale also puts national media attention onto sports cards. The more people in the game, the easier it will be for everyone to buy/sell/trade cards.

Our culture is also driven by precedent. It’s hard to be a trailblazer, doing things no one has ever done before. It’s scary. So when a sports card sells for $12.6 million, it paves the way for other cards to sell for the same or more.

Trout & Precedent

When Mike Trout Chrome Autos were $100, they had hit uncharted territory. Many people sold, because we simply didn’t see base Chrome Autos selling for three figures. “I don’t care how good he is, they can’t possibly go higher.” Well, they went higher. Much higher (and we mean much higher – see recent Trout Chrome Auto sales on eBay). But at the time, it was hard to get on board because it hadn’t been done before. Now that they’re worth literally 100x more, it’s easy to say he was an incredible investment when BC Autos were $100.

The same concept applies with the Mantle – now that it’s been done, we can come to terms with the idea of cards being worth 8 figures. And if a Mantle can be 8 figures, couldn’t a Trout be 7 figures? Couldn’t a Soto be 6 figures? You can apply this to other players and start to see the trickle down impact of how cards are often viewed – by comparison.

Love seeing the Mantle sale, and the fun part is this sale will eventually be dwarfed by another big card. It’s just a matter of time!

#3

What Happened: Aaron Judge Stayed On Pace

Aaron Judge hit 9 more homers in August, giving him 51 for the season. The 9 homer month actually broke his streak of 3 consecutive double digit home run months. It keeps him on pace for about 63 home runs, which would break the Yankees record.

Analysis

Know what’s more important than breaking the Yankee record? He’d also become the only person to hit more than 61 homers without cheating like Bonds, McGwire, and Sosa did in the late 90s and early 00s. This alone would be incredible to see. The reason his power feels so sustainable is because he hits to all fields. Check out his spray chart and where the homers are going:

A player with serious power to all fields is a threat at all times, and also helps slump-proof himself. Often we see hitters get too pull-happy as they try to yank homers, and it lands them in a slump. Judge has the impressive ability to go with the outside pitch and blast it over the right field wall. It also doesn’t hurt that Yankee Stadium plays like a tee-ball field to right field, but that’s a discussion for another day.

If he gets to 62+, it will also inspire fiery debate over who the true home run king is. Many people still feel Maris (61 in the ’61 season) and Aaron (755 career) are the true record holders since Bonds cheated to pass both milestones. Be on the lookout for some quality entertainment of argumentative comment sections with strangers fighting on social media if Judge gets there.

Impact on Card Values

Judge cards have steadily climbed this year, but if he approaches 62 in the next few weeks, we’re going to see his cards jump in a big way. It’s the type of story that will garner daily national news attention, bringing more attention to baseball. When there’s more attention on baseball, there’s also more attention on baseball cards, as people automatically think to go buy a “piece of the action” by acquiring a card of a guy like Judge, in case he actually does it.

We cannot predict the future, but based on all available evidence, there’s a strong chance Judge cards remain hot for at least the next month.

Who We’re Buying & Following

This is not investment advice. The following is for informational & entertainment purposes only. But these are some of the names we’re looking into or actively buying right now with the thought process behind each. This is not a comprehensive list.

Baseball

Aaron Judge (see Judge Topps Chrome rookie cards on eBay) – We believe what we said above. He’s also having the best season in MLB, so he gets the longest write-up. There’s a small risk factor with Judge cards right now because their values currently factor in the possibility of him getting to 62 homers. In other words, we’re paying for the possibility of that happening before it’s happened. It’s a calculated risk, however. To have 50+ homers with 30 games to go puts him within realistic striking distance, and we are happy to pay a little more for that now and take a chance on him doing it. If he doesn’t, values may dip slightly, but the Yankees will still be going to the playoffs, which gives Judge a different opportunity to still be in the national spotlight.

But his values already jumped this year, didn’t they?

You might be thinking “it’s too late to make money on Judge – card values are already too high.” It’s possible you’re correct, and we won’t argue that the best time to buy him was before the season. But there’s an opportunity at a potential quick double-up based on a certain achievement, and he doesn’t even have to successfully do it to make cards rise. He simply needs to stay close to pace, which will help move values higher from people buying in anticipation. Coincidentally, that’s exactly what we’re doing right now – buying in anticipation.

Any Judge card owners need to pay close attention to the market. If your goal is to make money, be ready to sell when the profit is available.

Juan Soto (see Soto rookie cards on eBay) – He hasn’t had a good year compared to his normal standard. Doesn’t matter. He’s still going to end up with 5.0+ WAR (Wins Above Replacement) and a 150+ OPS+ (Park Adjusted On-Base % + Slugging %). Incredible talent, still young, and should rebound next season especially as he settles in with his new team and gets a full year with protection from Manny Machado hitting behind him. We don’t expect his cards to rise any further this season, but they’re at relative lows and we like Soto as a good candidate to hold until spring and flip before the season begins. He’s also a long term hold candidate if you believe in his ability.

Be sure to check the pop report!

Because Soto’s pop reports are extremely high on things like his base Topps Update RC, we prefer to target lower pop cards like the Topps Update SPs above (the image is different than his normal base Topps Update RC). Always do what’s right for your own budget and risk tolerance, however.

Basketball

Tyrese Haliburton (see Haliburton rookie cards on eBay) – This guy feels like he has a 20ppg, 10apg, All Star season ahead of him. He’s on record calling this his goal, and calling it achievable. He’s significantly less expensive than comparable players in his age group, and while Indiana is not a massive market, he will be in the center of wherever the Pacers go this season. There’s some risk with Haliburton because if he doesn’t make the next jump, his card values will stagnate or dip. But there’s enough upside that he could be a possible <6 month flip candidate if his season goes the way we hope.

Anthony Edwards (see Edwards rookie cards on eBay) – This spot almost went to Luka Doncic, who we always like. Instead we give you Anthony Edwards. Edwards is coming off a very good second year, although his stats only improved slightly from his rookie season. That makes us feel like he’s due for a leap this year now that he’s settled into the NBA. He was also awesome in his role as Kermit Wiltz in the recent Adam Sandler film Hustle. His cards can be viewed similarly to Haliburton’s – he’s a “leap” candidate for this year, and if he doesn’t make the leap, people may lose faith. But if he shows the promise we think he can, he’s another potential <6 month flip candidate.

Football

Josh Allen (see Allen rookie cards on eBay) – Allen was a monster last season and will be again this year. The Bills should also be a contender. Allen can make it happen through the air while also being a threat on the ground. His cards are no longer inexpensive, but this is a scenario where an MVP or Super Bowl caliber season would likely push them to yet another level. There’s also a growing narrative that Allen might be the best QB in the league, and that’s a big reason to consider his cards for possible longer term gains. Football values change on a weekly basis, so if you own any Allen cards, make sure you follow closely this season.

Justin Herbert (see Herbert cards on eBay) – We almost went with Patrick Mahomes here, as he’s also on our radar; but the commentary would have been a copy & paste of the Allen blurb above. It’s not hard to justify Mahomes as an investment for the same reasons as Allen. Instead, we like what Justin Herbert brings to the table. He’s upward trending, and the Chargers have a really nice team going into the season. He’s also not cheap, but he’s a full step down in price point compared to Allen & Mahomes. Herbert’s name is getting thrown around in MVP conversations, and regardless of awards, he should be in line to put up another massive stat line this season.

Disclaimer

Cardboard Profit LLC operates this site and offers the content of this site for informational purposes only. The content of this website is not financial advice, investment advice, or any kind of advice. Cardboard Profit is in no way responsible for any kind of loss you may endure, financial or otherwise. Cardboard Profit has a strong track record of success, but past performance does not guarantee future results. The sports card market can be volatile, which means there is risk associated with buying cards. You are 100% responsible for your own finances, decisions, and actions. You are also fully responsible for any possible loss that results from your decisions or actions. Please act responsibly.