“Should I Get It Graded?”

You should probably get it graded. But this formula can help you make a more accurate decision.

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We see it all the time when newer collectors or investors pull or end up with a nice card.

“Should I get it graded?”

Nobody can accurately answer that question for you through the internet without seeing the card in person, but the answer for most meaningful cards is “probably.”

Still, that’s vague and doesn’t offer any situation-specific guidance.

That’s where this post comes in handy.

I call it the Cardboard Profit “Should I Get It Graded” Formula (super clever name, right? I’m working overtime over here lol):

v = (a*y) + (b*z) – (g+p)

a = % chance of card getting a 10 as a decimal (i.e., 70% = 0.7)
b = % chance of card getting a 9 as a decimal
y = value of card as a PSA 10
z = value of card as a PSA 9
g = cost of grading
p = price paid for the raw card
(a + b) must equal 1.0

The output (v) estimates how much value grading will add to (or take from) the card.

If v is positive, the card is likely worth grading, although it’s up to you to decide how much $$ makes a card worthwhile to grade (e.g., $2 is positive, but is it enough to tie up your money for 3 months?).

Let’s see it in action…

*See Corbin Carroll 2023 Topps Chrome RCs on eBay*

Here’s an example:

Let’s say it’s $19 to grade a card, and a Corbin Carroll 2023 Topps Chrome Refractor RC is $12 raw, $85 as a 10 and $25 as a 9.

We buy one and that’s a hair off-center with a very minor corner touch, but is clean otherwise, so we call it a 75% chance of a 10 and 25% chance of a 9.

Plug in the numbers:

v = (.75*85) + (.25*25) – (19+12)
v = $39

That means we should grade the card, because the expected value of the graded premium is $39.

Make sense?

One more example:

Let’s do the same scenario but say the card was in worse condition and had a 75% chance at a 9 and 25% chance at a 10:

v = (.25*85) + (.75*25) – (19+12)
v = $9

See how condition impacts v?

Couple notes:

The formula assumes we’re grading a card that’s likely outcomes are a 9 or a 10 with PSA.

It also assumes we’re being realistic with our grade estimates, as that will make the formula more accurate.

New to grading? Do the best you can, and remember, everyone started with no experience. You’ll learn with time and repetitions.

“Should I get it graded?” Now you don’t have to ask anymore. You can try this formula and decide for yourself.

May it serve you well!

For more sports card tips and commentary from Cardboard Profit, see our Latest Posts and don’t forget to follow @CardboardProfit on Instagram!